Blog Entry

Blogpoll Week 12

Posted on: November 25, 2009 11:55 am
Rank Team PPB StdDev Delta
1 Alabama (32) 24.1 0.9 --
2 Florida (21) 23.7 1.1 1
3 Texas (15) 23.6 1.0 1
4 TCU (6) 22.2 1.1 --
5 Cincinnati 21.0 0.8 --
6 Boise State 20.0 1.0 --
7 Georgia Tech 18.9 2.3 --
8 Pittsburgh 17.2 1.4 --
9 Oregon 17.0 1.2 --
10 Ohio State 16.4 1.8 --
11 Oklahoma State 13.2 2.6 1
12 Iowa 12.7 3.5 2
13 Penn State 12.0 3.1 2
14 Virginia Tech 11.4 2.9 2
15 Oregon State 9.1 3.6 4
16 Clemson 9.0 3.7 2
17 Miami (Florida) 7.6 3.0 3
18 LSU 6.7 3.8 7
19 Southern Cal 5.5 3.5 2
20 Brigham Young 5.3 4.9 2
21 Utah 4.9 4.3 2
22 North Carolina 4.3 3.7 3
23 California 4.0 3.3 3
24 Houston 3.9 4.0 --
25 Mississippi 3.3 3.4 1

Also Receiving Votes: Stanford(3.0), Nebraska(1.9), Wisconsin(0.7), Navy(0.6), Arizona(0.4), Temple(0.3), Northwestern(0.3), Central Michigan(0.3), Georgia(0.2), Texas Tech(0.2), West Virginia(0.1), Nevada(0.1), Arkansas(0.1), Syracuse(0.0),

Total Ballots: 74

Votes by blog here , votes by team here .

An extremely quiet week, with on-field events providing little in the way of reason to shake things up. LSU plummets after Les Miles' clock management fiasco and Stanford and Wisconsin drop out after suffering upsets; other than that the only thing of note is Florida barely edging past Texas for the #2 spot that will be moot after the SEC championship game.

Justify Your Existence

This is pretty much the same as last week: this is the only poll willing to move Florida off its pedestal and the only one that gets the order of Iowa and Penn State correct.

Wack Ballot Watchdog

Boiled Sports has a beef :

In an example of how stupid AP voters are, Stanford dropped out of their poll with a close loss to Cal in their rivalry game. So Stanford loses to a now-ranked Cal team, and falls from 14th to out of the polls. Yet the team they rolled 55-21 (USC) last week remains ranked. Seriously, this is an abomination. I kept Stanford in the poll because losing a close game to your rival -- who is also pretty good -- should not be penalized that harshly.

Er… well… it's not just the AP. And I think BS has a point: Stanford is 7-4 but against a very difficult schedule that has just one nonconference tomato-can on it. They've played a ton of losable games and have excellent wins over Oregon and USC. Surely that's more deserving than Utah, which has one win over a BCS team and that's Louisville, or Ole Miss, which may have just beaten LSU but only has three losses mostly because the nonconference schedule is Memphis, SE Louisiana, UAB, and Northern Arizona. This is a prime example of schedule strength not being taken into account enough; Stanford might not be a top 15 team but they probably should be somewhere in the poll.

Now on to the extracurriculars. First up are the teams which spur the most disagreement between voters as measured by standard deviation.

Most Disagreement

# Team StdDev
1 Brigham Young 4.9
2 Utah 4.3
3 Houston 4.0
4 Stanford 3.8
5 LSU 3.8

And the universe is back to normal: mid-majors dominate here.

Ballot Math

First up are "Mr. Bold" and "Mr. Numb Existence." The former goes to the voter with the ballot most divergent from the poll at large. The number you see is the average difference between a person's opinion of a team and the poll's opinion.

Mr. Bold

# Blog Team   Avg Error
1 Dan Shanoff Florida 3.36
2 Hey Jenny Slater Georgia 3.21
3 Red and Black Attack Northern Illinois 2.97
4 Let's Go Rockets Toledo 2.91
5 BCS Guru UCLA 2.91

Dan Shanoff has the week's most bat-crap poll of all and how did this guy not win the most manic-depressive ballot below, too? Utah, who has beaten zero teams of relevance and just got shellacked by TCU, flies up 11 spots to #11. Ole Miss flies up 11 spots to #14. Cal up ten spots. Iowa and Penn State down at 20 and 21, down 6 and five spots, respectively, after 1) a 12-0 shutout and 2) a 42-14 waxing. Shanoff, for his part… says nothing ! Arrrgh.

Mr. Numb Existence

# Blog Team   Avg Error
1 Colorado 0.98
2 Bama Sports Report Alabama 1.07
3 Atomic Teeth Missouri 1.09
4 The Bull Gator Florida 1.10
5 WSU Football Blog Washington State 1.11

Alabama and Florida blogs break up this award's recent run of top fives consisting exclusively of dull-eyed bloggers watching their teams soldier through miserable years; this may be because several of these teams have finished their seasons and the crushing weight of ennui is lifted. (No, this isn't about me. Yes it is.)

Anyway: Colorado blog has the most macro-ish poll and manages to get the average error under one point, but there's still no consensus at the top and a perfect ballot is not on the way.

Next we have the Coulter/Kos Award and the Straight Bangin' Award , which are again different sides of the same coin. The CKA and SBA go to the blogs with the highest and lowest bias rating, respectively. Bias rating is calculated by subtracting the blogger's vote for his own team from the poll-wide average. A high number indicates you are shameless homer. A low number indicates that you suffer from an abusive relationship with your football team.

The Coulter/Kos Award

# Blog Team   Bias
1 Corn Nation Nebraska 5.15
2 California Golden Blogs California 3.96
3 The Nittany Line Penn State 2.97
4 RazorBloggers Arkansas 2.89
5 Fantasy College Blitz Oklahoma State 2.82

Bah: Minnesota's miserable offense defied the CK Award last week as ten-point favorite Iowa beat the Gophers 12-0; the award is still an impressive 9-3 against the spread and 8-4 straight up.

This week it's another repeat offender tempting fate, as Nebraska—which escaped punishment thanks to a bye week before the horrendous, eight-turnover Iowa State game—finds itself under the gun for a second week. The Cornhusker's traditional Thanksgiving weekend rivalry game against Colorado is on the docket; Nebraska is favored by ten.

The Straight Bangin' Award

# Blog Team   Bias
1 Anton Azucar Miami (Florida) -3.55
2 CollegeGameBalls Virginia Tech -2.42
3 Gobbler Country Virginia Tech -2.42
4 Husker Mike's Blasphemy Nebraska -1.85
5 Dan Shanoff Florida -0.69

More Virginia Tech hangover is beaten out by Miami (That Miami) blogger Anton Azucar's skepticism about the 'Canes after a narrow escape against Duke. Which… yeah, I get that, man.

Swing is the total change in each ballot from last week to this week (obviously voters who didn't submit a ballot last week are not included). A high number means you are easily distracted by shiny things. A low number means that you're damn sure you're right no matter what reality says.

Mr. Manic-Depressive

# Blog Team   Swing
1 Dawg Sports Georgia 104
2 Roll Bama Roll Alabama 102
3 All Pac 10 Washington State 100
4 Dan Shanoff Florida 96
5 Falcon Nation Bowling Green 90

The chaos in Dawg Sports 's ballot is impressive given the relative lack of thunderous on-field events. In addition to the usual array of stuff that make sense, Houston and Oklahoma State plummet, Pitt and Georgia Tech move up three spots each, and Wisconsin goes from #13 to out.

Mr. Stubborn

# Blog Team   Swing
1 The Nittany Line Penn State 30
2 Testudo Times Maryland 36
3 Let's Go Rockets Toledo 40
4 Orange::44 Syracuse 40
5 Big Red Network Nebraska 44

In a week that saw little movement overall, The Nittany Line surpasses all thanks to kindness towards Wisconsin (down only five after a loss to Northwestern) and skepticism towards Stanford, which did not appear in last week's poll and doesn't have to get dropped as a result.

Category: NCAAF
Tags: blogpoll
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