Tag:alabama
Posted on: October 7, 2009 12:55 pm
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Blogpoll Week 5

 
Rank Team PPB Delta
1 Alabama (50) 24.2 --
2 Florida (43) 23.8 --
3 Texas (4) 23.0 --
4 LSU 19.9 3
5 Virginia Tech 19.8 --
6 Boise State 19.7 2
7 Cincinnati 18.5 1
8 Southern Cal 18.2 --
9 Miami (Florida) 15.5 6
10 TCU 15.3 --
11 Ohio State 15.0 1
12 Iowa 14.4 1
13 Oregon 11.4 3
14 Auburn 10.3 9
15 Penn State 9.0 3
16 Oklahoma State 8.7 2
17 Kansas 8.0 2
18 Nebraska 5.7 3
19 Georgia Tech 5.4 7
20 Missouri 5.1 6
21 Brigham Young 5.0 1
22 South Florida 4.9 4
23 Mississippi 4.4 2
24 Wisconsin 3.9 2
25 Oklahoma 3.7 14

Also Receiving Votes: South Carolina(3.5), Houston(1.9), Georgia(1.8), Stanford(1.6), Notre Dame(1.1), Michigan(0.6), Arizona(0.5), West Virginia(0.3), Pittsburgh(0.2), Boston College(0.2), Utah(0.2), Connecticut(0.1), California(0.1), UCLA(0.1), Texas Tech(0.1), Central Michigan(0.0), UAB(0.0),

Total Ballots: 97

Votes by blog here , votes by team here .

After a terribly exciting week in which the BlogPoll anointed a new #1 and generally demonstrated itself to be totally awesome relative to the actual polls that comprise the BCS, it's a bit of of a return to normalcy. This will be the theme of the rest of the year as games keep rolling in and your wiggle room to do something interesting evaporates.

This week the big movers are Miami (That Miami), which squeezed by Oklahoma and re-established its top-ten bonafides after the Virginia Tech embarrassment of a week ago, Auburn, which got a not-as-close-as-it-looked victory at Tennessee and has finally exorcised the stink of last year to pollsters, Georgia Tech, which won at Mississippi State, and Missouri, which did absolutely nothing but watched the back end of the poll implode whilst enjoying cheeseburgers.

Oklahoma is the most obvious faller but don't forget about poor Houston, which went from the top ten penthouse to gone after losing to UTEP by lots. Don't ask how or why. It just is. Georgia and Michigan also dropped out.

Justify Your Existence

Alabama, #3 everywhere else, is a tentative #1 here. They've got six first place votes total across the AP and Coaches' polls. Our one-week skepticism of LSU has been battered back into shape by Les Miles's ability to inexplicably pull his team out of the fire, but other major differences of opinion:

WE LIKE

  • Alabama, obviously.
  • Miami is #9 here, #11 in both other polls.
  • Auburn is #13 here compared to #17 AP and #19 Coaches.
  • GT is #19 here, #23/#22 elsewhere.

WE DON'T LIKE

  • Oklahoma is #19 to the AP and #21 to the Coaches but is just barely hanging on to the last spot here.
  • OSU (#11) meets considerably more skepticism here than in the other polls, where they're 8 and 9.
  • Ole Miss is #23 here, #20 in the AP, and #16(!!!) in the Coaches' poll.

LOL WUT

  • The coaches still have Penn State above Iowa.

Wack Ballot Watchdog

Oddities:

  • I know we're getting to the point in the season where pure head-to-head isn't necessarily the best or only way to rank teams, but it seems hard to defend placing Oregon eight spots in front of a team (Boise State) that housed them on the opening weekend and has not lost, as Buckeye Commentary does.
  • Two voters are still inexplicably going for Cal . I guess the Maryland win looks better this week, but come on.
  • If you think #12 is low for Florida , you haven't seen anything yet: Tomahawk Nation puts UF #20, down 15 after a bye week and behind Michigan(!?).
  • The Auburner allmost scales those same heights by placing LSU #20 .
  • Arizona just picked up a nice win in Corvallis, but, um: BHGP ranks them #6 . It wasn't that nice.

And an omissions: where is South Carolina? Surely wins over NC State and Ole Miss plus a narrow, narrow loss to UGA is worth poll entry over Kansas or whoever.

Now on to the extracurriculars. First up are the teams which spur the most and least disagreement between voters as measured by standard deviation. Note that the standard deviation charts halt at #25 when looking for the lowest, otherwise teams that everyone agreed were terrible (say, Eastern Michigan) would all be at the top.

Most Disagreement

# Team StdDev
1 Kansas 4.9
2 Oklahoma State 4.9
3 Nebraska 4.7
4 South Florida 4.6
5 Penn State 4.5

No one knows much about the Big 12. Here is a rant on that subject from War Blog Eagle that might explain things :

You’ll notice there are only two Big 12 teams in the ballot above. This is because the Big 12 is a joke.

Herewith, a comprehensive list of the entire conference’s nonconference victories to date, recalling that we have now entered the sixth week of the season: [long list of junk with Georgia, Wake Forest and Illinois the only BCS opponents therein] [Further list of B12 nonconference matchups that were not wins.]

Of course, here’s the catch: they lost every one of those games. Take the actual contenders for the top 25 in the Big 12–Texas, Oklahoma, Okie St., Texas Tech, Nebraska, Kansas, and Missouri–and they’re a combined 1-5 against legitimate nonconference opponents. (Southern Miss lost that designation when it slipped up against UAB, by the way.) 1-5 .

But I’m supposed to rank Kansas anyway, right, because they’re 4-0 and they’re Kansas? I’m supposed to rank Oklahoma anyway, because they’ve beaten Tulsa and Idaho St. and they’re Oklahoma?

Some people say yes. Others say not. Result: Big 12 mania atop this metric.

Ballot Math

First up are "Mr. Bold" and "Mr. Numb Existence." The former goes to the voter with the ballot most divergent from the poll at large. The number you see is the average difference between a person's opinion of a team and the poll's opinion.

Mr. Bold

# Blog Team   Avg Error
1 Tomahawk Nation Florida State 6.17
2 Saurian Sagacity Florida 5.81
3 SimonOnSports Connecticut 5.53
4 The Tortilla Retort Texas Tech 4.24
5 Black Heart Gold Pants Iowa 4.10

Perhaps on the strength of that wack #20 vote for Florida, Tomahawk Nation eases into possession of Mr. Bold . Many, many weird votes, including: Miami #2, Iowa #3, South Carolina #10, Houston still #14, Texas #16, Michigan #19, the aforementioned Florida #20, and Ohio State #25. From your ballot to God's ears, TN.

Mr. Numb Existence

# Blog Team   Avg Error
1 Troy Nunes Is An Absolute Magician Syracuse 1.40
2 The Only Colors Michigan State 1.53
3 The Wolverine Blog Michigan 1.56
4 Third Saturday in Blogtober Alabama 1.60
5 Buffs.tv Colorado 1.61

Troy Nunes Is An Absolute Magician 's long coverage of Syracuse athletics has finally netted it something of value: the week five, 2009, Mr. Numb Existence award. Next up: the International Bowl ?

Next we have the Coulter/Kos Award and the Straight Bangin' Award , which are again different sides of the same coin. The CKA and SBA go to the blogs with the highest and lowest bias rating, respectively. Bias rating is calculated by subtracting the blogger's vote for his own team from the poll-wide average. A high number indicates you are shameless homer. A low number indicates that you suffer from an abusive relationship with your football team.

The Coulter/Kos Award

# Blog Team   Bias
1 Big Red Network Nebraska 11.33
2 Husker Mike's Blasphemy Nebraska 8.33
3 Black Heart Gold Pants Iowa 7.60
4 Braves and Birds Georgia 7.25
5 Subway Domer Notre Dame 6.93

Foul power of the CK Award update(!): Iowa managed to escape the true overpowering wrath of the double-headed god of bias, but only just. A Ricky Stanzi pick-six brought Arkansas State within ten and then the Red Wolves—why is it that teams that change their name from something offensively Indian, in this case the "Indians," always explicitly put red in their nicknames afterwards?—then drove for a sphincter-tightening touchdown to make it 24-21. They could not close the deal, perhaps because the CK Award was splitting its steely gaze between Nebraska (Nebraska blogs finished 1-2 last week with another Husker blogger in the #4 spot) and the Hawkeyes, who only finished third in last week's balloting but were thrust into the spotlight because of a Nebraska bye.

But they did easily beat the spread, bringing the CK Award to 6-0 on the season against Vegas and 5-1 straight up, with an undefeated Big Ten team's three point escape against a Sunbelt team the lone loss. Wrath and woe.

We'll never find out if the CK Award stores up hatred for later since Nebraska blogs take 1-2 again this week. That #4 guy must have got wise. Nebraska travels to Missouri to open Big 12 play; that line opened as a pick-em but has moved to Nebraska –3.

Oh, right: congratulations to the Big Red Network for pulling this in for a second consecutive week.

The Straight Bangin' Award

# Blog Team   Bias
1 Saurian Sagacity Florida -4.78
2 Tilting at WindMills Oklahoma -3.68
3 Gobbler Country Virginia Tech -1.78
4 Dawg Sports Georgia -1.75
5 Hey Jenny Slater Georgia -1.75

Saurian Sagacity, a dedicated resume-ranking blog that takes an extra dim view of cupcakin' it, often ends up here early in the season when their team of choice spends lots of its time cupcakin' it. And here they are, dropping Florida down to #7 after a bye week.

SIDE NOTE : they have Alabama and Auburn 1-2 at this juncture, which would make for a Football Armageddon to end all Football Armageddons. The entire state would devolve. The loser would have to leave. They'd pile them up in two square miles in the northwest corner of the State and build a big fence around it.

Swing is the total change in each ballot from last week to this week (obviously voters who didn't submit a ballot last week are not included). A high number means you are easily distracted by shiny things. A low number means that you're damn sure you're right no matter what reality says.

Mr. Manic-Depressive

# Blog Team   Swing
1 Saurian Sagacity Florida 220
2 Black Heart Gold Pants Iowa 182
3 Dr. Saturday Southern Miss 176
4 Tomahawk Nation Florida State 164
5 The Joe Cribbs Car Wash Auburn 156

Wheeee! This award is still the realm of the dedicated resume-ranker, with the aforementioned Saurian Sagacity racking up 220 points worth of changes and easily outdistancing the pack. Auburn, Miami, Penn State, Michigan, and previous #2 Houston all see double-digit shifts and the only team to remain in the same spot is Alabama. That is tossing your ballot away and starting anew.

Mr. Stubborn

# Blog Team   Swing
1 Clone Chronicles Iowa State 60
2 Hey Jenny Slater Georgia 60
3 Yet Another N.C. State Sports Blog North Carolina State 62
4 Buffs.tv Colorado 66
5 The Nittany Line Penn State 66

On the other side of the ledger, this week we have a tie for Mr. Stubborn . Both ballots actually see a fair share of movement—60 is a big winning number here—but most of the ups and downs are in lockstep; no major shifts. Also Clone Chronicles still has Oklahoma #11, which what?


Category: NCAAF
Tags: alabama, blogpoll
 
Posted on: September 30, 2009 11:45 am
 

Blogpoll Week 4

 

Rank Team PPB Delta
1 Alabama (50) 24.2 1
2 Florida (48) 24.0 1
3 Texas (4) 22.9 --
4 Boise State 20.3 5
5 Virginia Tech 19.2 7
6 Cincinnati 18.2 4
7 LSU 18.0 1
8 Southern Cal 15.9 3
9 Houston 15.6 7
10 TCU 14.7 5
11 Oklahoma 14.4 2
12 Ohio State 14.1 2
13 Iowa 13.8 13
14 Oklahoma State 9.5 4
15 Miami (Florida) 8.7 8
16 Oregon 7.8 10
17 Georgia 7.7 4
18 Penn State 7.6 13
19 Kansas 6.8 1
20 Michigan 5.9 1
21 Nebraska 4.3 5
22 Brigham Young 4.2 1
23 Auburn 4.1 3
24 California 3.8 20
25 Mississippi 3.6 17

Also Receiving Votes: Missouri(3.6), Georgia Tech(3.2), South Florida(2.5), UCLA(2.3), South Carolina(2.2), Wisconsin(0.7), Notre Dame(0.4), Utah(0.2), Arizona(0.1), North Carolina(0.1), Stanford(0.1), Florida State(0.1), North Carolina State(0.1), Pittsburgh(0.1), Connecticut(0.0), Texas Tech(0.0), Minnesota(0.0), Texas A&M(0.0),

Total Ballots: 102

Votes by blog here , votes by team here .

Hello! There's a new #1 in town : Alabama, which authoritatively dismissed Arkansas and got a big boost from Virginia Tech demolishing previously top-ten story of the season Miami (That Miami). Alabama's got way more oomph in its early season schedule than anyone else and narrowly overcomes poll momentum to grab the top spot away from Florida. In the long run it won't mean a whole lot since undefeated (or, honestly, one-loss) versions of either Florida or Alabama are virtually guaranteed to get into the BCS Championship Game after beating the other in the SEC version of same, but it is nice to see that people are paying attention. About which more later.

Elsewhere, a wide variety of top ten teams get hammered for disappointing performance. Cal takes what I believe is a record 20-spot drop after losing to Oregon 42-3; Mississippi just barely stays in the poll at #25 after losing in ugly fashion to South Carolina, Penn State drops 13 spots after an only vaguely competitive game against Iowa, and Miami (That Miami) suffered the aforementioned beating at the hands of Virginia Tech. Miami's wins over Florida State and Georgia Tech give them some staying power; they drop only eight slots.

Justify Your Existence

It might be time for the Harris and Coaches' Polls to start justifying their existences. I noted this on my home blog and it's worth repeating here: the list of grievances presented by Doctor Saturday a month into the season is compelling. Here's a brief dossier of the inanities currently featured in the polls that determine BCS eligibility and national championship game entry:

A month into the season, is it too much to ask the AP , coaches and Harris polls reflect the slightest shred of common sense?

LSU is No. 4. Because ... ?

Oklahoma is No. 8. Because ... ?

The coaches rank Oklahoma State ahead of Houston.

The coaches and Harris polls rank Penn State ahead of Iowa.

The coaches and Harris rank Cal ahead of Oregon.

All three polls rank Ole Miss ahead of South Carolina.

Each of these has explanation over at DocSat, though in many cases the explanation could be "duh." The blogpoll is far from perfect but the ever-expanding cadre of voters who are basing their ballots strictly on what's gone on between the sidelines—something the poll guidelines suggest should be implemented by week five and demand by week eight—makes for a poll that escapes most of those inanities . You could argue LSU and Oklahoma are still too high but they are considerably lower than they are in the Harris/Coaches' polls. Houston, Oregon and Iowa are ahead of the teams they beat handily. Ole Miss is still ahead of South Carolina, unfortunately, but the inertia in the BlogPoll is far less; Ole Miss is still #18 in the Coaches' Poll but is down to #25 here, and was totally out of the Monday draft version of the thing.

And then there's

Wack Ballot Watchdog

We're finally done with strange #1 votes, so just the weirdos, ma'am:

Now on to the extracurriculars. First up are the teams which spur the most and least disagreement between voters as measured by standard deviation. Note that the standard deviation charts halt at #25 when looking for the lowest, otherwise teams that everyone agreed were terrible (say, Eastern Michigan) would all be at the top.

Most Disagreement

# Team StdDev
1 Oklahoma 5.8
2 Oregon 5.5
3 Auburn 5.4
4 Iowa 5.2
5 Kansas 5.2

Oooh: a rare instance where mid-major teams do not so much as make an appearance. Oklahoma, possessors of wins over nobody and a loss to a BYU team that was subsequently run off its own field by Florida State, which was subsequently run off the field by a South Florida team without longtime starting quarterback Matt Groethe, is a matter of some debate. Of course it is.

Ballot Math

First up are "Mr. Bold" and "Mr. Numb Existence." The former goes to the voter with the ballot most divergent from the poll at large. The number you see is the average difference between a person's opinion of a team and the poll's opinion.

Mr. Bold

# Blog Team   Avg Error
1 Dr. Saturday Southern Miss 6.28
2 Tomahawk Nation Florida State 5.98
3 SimonOnSports Connecticut 5.89
4 The Tortilla Retort Texas Tech 5.70
5 Rocky Top Talk Tennessee 5.33

Dr. Saturday reclaims its God-given spot at the top of the Mr. Bold rankings with his dedicated resume-ranking, though you can see the margin and average error dipping as the rest of the poll begins to come around to the idea that onfield results are the only thing that matter after a certain point.

Mr. Numb Existence

# Blog Team Avg Error
1 Bama Sports Report Alabama 1.64
2 Beat Visitor Rutgers 1.69
3 A Sea of Blue Kentucky 1.82
4 CollegeGameBalls Virginia Tech 1.84
5 Hail to the Orange Illinois 1.88

Mr. Numb Existence goes to Alabama blog Bama Sports Report , which yes does agree that Alabama should be #1, thank you. We're still a ways off from the point when a hypothetical exact ballot can be submitted, and BSR's 1.64 winning error is actually pretty high. Give it time.

Next we have the Coulter/Kos Award and the Straight Bangin' Award , which are again different sides of the same coin. The CKA and SBA go to the blogs with the highest and lowest bias rating, respectively. Bias rating is calculated by subtracting the blogger's vote for his own team from the poll-wide average. A high number indicates you are shameless homer. A low number indicates that you suffer from an abusive relationship with your football team.

The Coulter/Kos Award

# Blog Team Bias
1 Big Red Network Nebraska 11.68
2 Husker Mike's Blasphemy Nebraska 10.68
3 Black Heart Gold Pants Iowa 8.25
4 Corn Nation Nebraska 7.68
5 BCS Guru UCLA 7.66

Holy hotpants. The CK Award is now 4-0 straight up and against the spread after crushing Florida State for the second time this year. FSU was a two-touchdown favorite over the Groethe-less Bulls. I have been warned never to suggest the CK Award's power is anything other than absolute.

So, Nebraska, you're totally screwed for this week's game against… nobody. What? Is this a plot to break the foul streak? Nebraska blogs had better explain :

Nebraska in the Top 10? I decided this on Saturday night after I returned home from the game and witnessed the carnage in the Top 25. I keep hearing today how if Nebraska had beaten VT they'd be in the top ten. Why not put them there, then? Nobody who watched it came away thinking NU and VT were anything less than equal. The huge jump has nothing to do with the game against Louisiana and a lot to do with the way Tech handled Miami, but here's the other factor: Nebraska hasn't played poorly yet. That's something Oklahoma, USC, Oregon, Cal, Iowa, BYU, LSU, or Oklahoma State--all teams ranked ahead of the Huskers in either the coaches or AP poll--can't say and consistency has to count for something. The Huskers haven't faced a truly explosive offense yet, but they'll see plenty of them in the Big 12.

Oh. Well… that's not totally insane. It's still pretty freakin' insane, because Nebraska may not have "played poorly" yet but they lost to VT and their other three games have been against Florida Atlantic, Arkansas State, and Louisiana Lafayette. "Consistency" can count for something, but probably not more than beating Penn State on the road at night, one-point win over a I-AA team be damned.

Speaking of, I guess the whammy might fall to Iowa this week, as an enthusiastic Black Heart Gold Pants throws the Hawkeyes all the way up to #4. I actually think that's justified since few other teams can claim easy victories over three BCS schools, or two BCS schools and Iowa State. Iowa's got… argh… Arkansas State this weekend. They're a three-touchdown favorite.

As for Nebraska, I don't know how the CK Award will react. Will it save up its righteous fury for a week and unleash it in the Huskers' Big Twelve opener against Missouri? Or will it wander off like a confused puppy to gnaw (OF DOOM!) on whichever sap team wins it next week? Stay tuned.

The Straight Bangin' Award

# Blog Team   Bias
1 Hey Jenny Slater Georgia -7.70
2 The Nittany Line Penn State -7.57
3 Tilting at WindMills Oklahoma -7.39
4 The Lions Den Penn State -4.57
5 California Golden Blogs California -3.76

Georgia's getting impressive staying power here off their early-season loss to Oklahoma State, with Doug Gillett of Hey Jenny Slater remaining the poll's most pessimistic fellow about his chosen team. The rest of the top five is pretty obvious, with Penn State fans overreacting to their fall from grace and Cal fans… well… Cal fans are potentially justified in leaving the Bears off their ballots entirely.

Swing is the total change in each ballot from last week to this week (obviously voters who didn't submit a ballot last week are not included). A high number means you are easily distracted by shiny things. A low number means that you're damn sure you're right no matter what reality says.

Mr. Manic-Depressive

# Blog Team   Swing
1 Black Heart Gold Pants Iowa 256
2 Dr. Saturday Southern Miss 254
3 Rocky Top Talk Tennessee 250
4 From Old Virginia Virginia 242
5 The Joe Cribbs Car Wash Auburn 226

Wheeeee it's resume folk at the top here as per usual, with CK Award sorta-winner Black Heart Gold Pants narrowly edging Doctor Saturday . This category will get more interesting in a few weeks.

Mr. Stubborn

# Blog Team Swing
1 Roll Bama Roll Alabama 26
2 Let's Go Rockets Toledo 78
3 Block C Clemson 90
4 Husker Mike's Blasphemy Nebraska 102
5 Subway Domer Notre Dame 106

Roll Bama Roll is not psychic—if you look at last week's ballot it looks suspiciously like a ballot that someone might submit this week, they're just prompt. They submitted a ballot first this week and were thus the only blog to run across an error on my part that hadn't moved the voting week ahead. So they are not the possessors of this week's Mr. Stubborn , but we will offer them the first-ever Lightnin' Hopkins Fastest Ballot award.

The actual Mr. Stubborn goes to Toledo blog Let's Go Rockets , which surveyed the carnage last weekend and said "maybe if I vote like a coach I'll get hired somewhere": Penn State drops only seven to #11 and remains six spots in front of Iowa. Miami, which LGR was already skeptical of, drops five spots to #24. Ole Miss and Cal only drop seven spots and Oregon doesn't even get on the ballot. I give this ballot a cocked eyebrow.


Category: NCAAF
Tags: alabama, blogpoll
 
 
 
 
 
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