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Tag:florida
Posted on: December 10, 2008 12:46 pm
 

Blogpoll Week 15: Little Movement


Rank Team PPB Delta
1 Florida (31) 24.3 1
2 Oklahoma (19) 23.9 1
3 Texas (7) 23.3 1
4 Alabama 21.3 3
5 Southern Cal 21.1 --
6 Penn State 19.6 --
7 Texas Tech 18.8 --
8 Utah 18.7 --
9 Ohio State 16.6 1
10 Boise State 16.4 1
11 Cincinnati 13.3 1
12 TCU 12.9 1
13 Oklahoma State 12.7 --
14 Georgia Tech 12.1 1
15 Oregon 10.1 1
16 Georgia 8.9 2
17 Michigan State 7.9 3
18 Mississippi 5.8 4
19 Virginia Tech 5.7 7
20 Pittsburgh 5.7 3
21 Brigham Young 5.6 --
22 Northwestern 4.0 2
23 Missouri 3.9 4
24 Boston College 2.8 7
25 Oregon State 2.7 --

Also Receiving Votes: Iowa(2.3), Ball State(2.1), Florida State(0.8), North Carolina(0.4), California(0.4), Kansas(0.2), Tulsa(0.2), Nebraska(0.1), Rice(0.1), Western Michigan(0.1), Buffalo(0.1), East Carolina(0.0), West Virginia(0.0), Rutgers(0.0),

Total Ballots: 57

Votes by blog here, votes by team here.

The BlogPoll sides with the AP on the Florida-or-Oklahoma question (the coaches poll went with OU) and has about the same number of disgruntled Texas folk complaining about head-to-head and whatnot. Elsewhere it's quiet, with championship game losers plummeting, Virginia Tech surging because someone has to be #19, and Ball State exiting entirely after losing the MAC championship to Buffalo.

Eh… not much going on, as you might expect.

Wack Ballot Watchdog

It's no secret yrs truly has a rampant disdain for the BCS. You can tell because I walk on two feet, watch college football, and am not currently employed by an organization with a vested interest in preserving the current system.

So, yeah, why not them? Black Shoe Diaries, take it away:

Am I a homer for ranking Penn State in the top two? Sure. But I'm not the only one.

If Mack Brown can rank his team #2 just because Texas beat a top ten team, why not us? We beat Ohio State, who is also a top ten team. And they beat Oklahoma on a neutral field while we beat Ohio State on the road.

Urban Meyer ranked his team #1 despite losing to an unranked team at home. We lost to an unranked team with the same record on the road. Why not us? (Incidently, Meyer ranked Penn State #9 on his ballot.)

USC lost to Oregon State. We destroyed Oregon State. Why not us?

Alabama's out of conference schedule was a joke. They don't have a win over a team currently ranked in the top 10. We beat three teams currently ranked in the top 25. Why not us?

Later, the author will say his poll is a statement: "Polls suck and I hate polls." Surely he means a system that allows polls to determine the participants in a two-team playoff sucks, and that polls—cough—are fine when no one takes them seriously enough to do such a stupid thing. Cough.

Now on to the extracurriculars. First up are the teams which spur the most and least disagreement between voters as measured by standard deviation. Note that the standard deviation charts halt at #25 when looking for the lowest, otherwise teams that everyone agreed were terrible (say, Eastern Michigan) would all be at the top.

Most Disagreement

# Team StdDev
1 Brigham Young 4.6
2 Mississippi 3.6
3 Virginia Tech 3.6
4 Northwestern 3.4
5 Pittsburgh 3.3

The mid-majors have slipped entirely from this list except for #1 BYU, which does have a hammering of UCLA to its credit but came closer than any team save Washington State to losing to the Not Fighting Willinghams; confusion is understandable.

Ballot Math

First up are "Mr. Bold" and "Mr. Numb Existence." The former goes to the voter with the ballot most divergent from the poll at large. The number you see is the average difference between a person's opinion of a team and the poll's opinion.

Mr. Bold
# Blog Team   Avg Error
1 Tomahawk Nation Florida State 4.67
2 CollegeGameBalls Virginia Tech 2.89
3 Gate 21 Tennessee 2.50
4 Eagle in Atlanta Boston College 2.49
5 Roll Bama Roll Alabama 2.44

We have been here before and remain here: Tomahawk Nation's refusal to even think about ranking mid-majors any higher than #22 (Utah) is giving that blog an average error way higher than anyone else's.

Mr. Numb Existence

# Blog Team   Avg Error
1 California Golden Blogs California 0.83
2 SportsFrog Central Michigan 0.95
3 Michigan Sports Center Michigan 1.04
4 RazorBloggers Arkansas 1.14
5 Block C Clemson 1.19

Congratulations to California Golden Blogs. When not busy winning this award they're filling up my RSS reader with posts featuring 60 pictures at once—use the cut, guys!—and deploying Microsoft paint to illustrate just what can go wrong with safety angles. If you're a Cal fan it should be your #1 stop.

Next we have the Coulter/Kos Award and the Straight Bangin' Award, which are again different sides of the same coin. The CKA and SBA go to the blogs with the highest and lowest bias rating, respectively. Bias rating is calculated by subtracting the blogger's vote for his own team from the poll-wide average. A high number indicates you are shameless homer. A low number indicates that you suffer from an abusive relationship with your football team.

The Coulter/Kos Award

# Blog Team   Bias
1 Tomahawk Nation Florida State 8.19
2 CollegeGameBalls Virginia Tech 5.26
3 Black Shoe Diaries Penn State 4.37
4 Block U Utah 3.33
5 BC Interruption Boston College 3.19

The CK Award had no victims in a light week of college football, but we have a CK-doomed bowl game between Florida State and Wisconsin on December 27th thanks to Tomahawk Nation's largesse.

Remember: CK Award winners are 3-10 against the spread so far.

The Straight Bangin' Award

# Blog Team   Bias
1 Dawg Sports Georgia -3.91
2 Braves and Birds Georgia -1.91
3 ScalpEm.com Florida State -0.81
4 Tar Heel Mania North Carolina -0.44
5 Bears Necessity California -0.40

Straight Bangin’ award is again the province of Georgia blogs still stinging from that defeat against Georgia Tech. This is pretty common, actually: whenever someone meets humiliating, unexpected defeat, especially against a rival, that team shoots to the top of this category.

Swing is the total change in each ballot from last week to this week (obviously voters who didn't submit a ballot last week are not included). A high number means you are easily distracted by shiny things. A low number means that you're damn sure you're right no matter what reality says.

Unfortunately, a glitch in the ballot entry process this week caused a lot of people to overwrite last week's ballot with their new ballots and yielded some seriously messed up "swing" numbers. So there are no winners here this week. Deepest apologies to trophy-seeking bloggers.

Category: NCAAF
Posted on: November 19, 2008 1:07 pm
 

Blogpoll Week 12: Should Florida Be #1?

Rank Team PPB Delta
1 Texas Tech (48) 24.7 --
2 Alabama (16) 23.9 --
3 Florida (6) 22.7 1
4 Texas 22.3 1
5 Oklahoma 20.9 --
6 Southern Cal 20.1 --
7 Penn State 18.1 --
8 Utah 17.8 --
9 Boise State 15.7 --
10 Oklahoma State 15.6 --
11 Ohio State 15.3 --
12 Missouri 14.2 --
13 Georgia 13.3 --
14 Michigan State 10.6 2
15 Ball State 9.7 1
16 TCU 9.2 1
17 Brigham Young 8.1 1
18 Oregon State 7.5 5
19 Cincinnati 7.4 3
20 Pittsburgh 6.4 --
21 LSU 4.1 --
22 Maryland 3.4 4
23 Miami (Florida) 3.4 3
24 North Carolina 2.7 9
25 Oregon 2.5 1

Also Receiving Votes: Boston College(1.7), Georgia Tech(0.8), Florida State(0.6), Northwestern(0.5), Iowa(0.3), Western Michigan(0.3), Central Michigan(0.2), West Virginia(0.2), California(0.2), Mississippi(0.1), Connecticut(0.1), Virginia Tech(0.1), Wake Forest(0.1), Nebraska(0.0), Air Force(0.0), Syracuse(0.0), Rice(0.0),

Total Ballots: 70

Votes by blog here, votes by team here.

A placid week with no clashes between titans and no preposterous upsets. Texas Tech retains its grip on the top spot and Alabama has to deal with a hard-charging Florida, which used its domination of the OBC to spring past Texas. (An assist to God on that one.)

Cincinnati gets the biggest boost and North Carolina takes the most precipitous fall, but like most of college football's punditry, the BlogPoll treats last week as an annoying seven day period to wait before getting to this week.

Wack Ballot Watchdog

The weirdest thing this week is that "6" by Florida up there, right? I wonder if anyone went to the trouble of justifying that beyond "holy pants that's a lot of points against South Carolina." No, no, no… yes! Team Speed Kills on his Florida #1 vote:

This week, let's take a look at my Top 5 by teams' win-loss record, points per game, opponents' points per game, points per game differential and strength of schedule rank as determined by Sagarin. (No, I don't like him any better than any of you do. Find me a better, widely-recognized measure and I'll use it.)

Blogpolltop5_medium

Against a far tougher schedule, Florida has a PPGD that's at least five points higher than anyone else in my Top 5, against a schedule that is either tougher or one slot less difficult than anyone else in my Top 5.

Argue "running up the score" if you want, but let me ask you this: Has Alabama given any indication, aside from the Georgia game, that it could run up the score on a good team if it wanted to? (And Clemson is 5-5 in the ACC with two of those wins over FCS teams -- so, no, they don't count as a good team.) You can't choose not to run up the score if you're not capable of doing so in the first place.

That's a compelling argument. Balancing losses versus strength of schedule and overall performance has always been the trickiest part of ranking teams. Clearly, Florida has performed better overall than conference-mate Alabama, but they had the misfortune to lose and Alabama had the good fortune to escape their close games. It's moot this year since Florida will be in the title  game if they win the SEC, but questions like that have plagued the BCS since its inception.

Now on to the extracurriculars. First up are the teams which spur the most disagreement between voters as measured by standard deviation. Note that the standard deviation charts halt at #25 when looking for the lowest, otherwise teams that everyone agreed were terrible (say, Eastern Michigan) would all be at the top.

Most Disagreement

 

# Team StdDev
1 Ball State 4.5
2 Brigham Young 4.3
3 TCU 3.6
4 Boise State 3.2
5 LSU 3.1

This domain is often the realm of mid-major teams and here they have a near clean sweep, with only wildly schizophrenic LSU breaking up the party.

Ballot Math

First up are "Mr. Bold" and "Mr. Numb Existence." The former goes to the voter with the ballot most divergent from the poll at large. The number you see is the average difference between a person's opinion of a team and the poll's opinion.

Mr. Bold

# Blog Team   Avg Error
1 Tomahawk Nation Florida State 2.89
2 Eagle in Atlanta Boston College 2.64
3 CollegeGameBalls Virginia Tech 2.61
4 mgoblog Michigan 2.60
5 And The Valley Shook! LSU 2.57

Tomahawk Nation is a repeat Mr. Bold winner; last week they won by hating on the mid-majors and throwing in some other oddities like #14 South Carolina. This week: pretty much the same. Someone did prevail on TN to give Utah a chance, as they have wins over BYU, Oregon State and (uh, is this impressive?) Michigan, and the Utes surge eight spots. Everyone else outside a BCS conference can get bent.

Hey, I'm generally on TN's side here—I think the mid-majors in the poll above are generally overrated—but Utah is still under Oregon State, which, like… ain't right.

Mr. Numb Existence

# Blog Team   Avg Error
1 Around the Oval Ohio State 0.83
2 Michigan Sports Center Michigan 0.85
3 California Golden Blogs California 0.97
4 Black Shoe Diaries Penn State 0.98
5 Lake The Posts Northwestern 0.99

Your Mr. Numb Existence winner for what I believe is the third time this year is Around The Oval. The Big Ten has a near-lock on this category—probably has something to do with the weather.

Next we have the Coulter/Kos Award and the Straight Bangin' Award, which are again different sides of the same coin. The CKA and SBA go to the blogs with the highest and lowest bias rating, respectively. Bias rating is calculated by subtracting the blogger's vote for his own team from the poll-wide average. A high number indicates you are shameless homer. A low number indicates that you suffer from an abusive relationship with your football team.

The Coulter/Kos Award

# Blog Team   Bias
1 Addicted to Quack Oregon 5.53
2 TheES Michigan State 4.37
3 Eagle in Atlanta Boston College 3.34
4 Block U Utah 3.21
5 Mizzourah Missouri 2.80

The CK Award winner last week saw his team take on BYE, so the crown of thorns fell to runner-up ACC Football Report, which supports Florida State. The Seminoles proceeded to lose to Boston College 27-17, causing a "fire everyone" diatribe on the aforementioned Tomahawk Nation and dropping CK Award winners to 3-8 against the spread. To put this in perspective via analogy:

CK Award Winner : Spread :: Michigan : Rest of college football

That's evil in a box, man.

This week the evil eye passes to Oregon, which Addicted to Quack ranked #17. #17? That's it? I don't know if the malevolent Gods of excessive homerdom will even cock an eyebrow at Oregon in front of luminaries like Pittsburgh, Maryland, and Ball State. Eh, they've still got the whammy this weekend.  Oregon takes on… aw, hell, nobody. They've got a bye before the Civil War. The whammy, appropriately, falls to Michigan State, which dodged it last weekend. Penn State, do your worst.

The Straight Bangin' Award

# Blog Team   Bias
1 Pitt Blather Pittsburgh -6.43
2 Braves and Birds Georgia -3.33
3 And The Valley Shook! LSU -3.13
4 Tar Heel Mania North Carolina -2.67
5 50-Yard Lion Penn State -1.10

Straight Bangin’ award remains the exclusive property of the diehard Pitt skeptics at Pitt Blather, who isn't tempting fate in the run up to a defacto Big East championship game against Cincinnati:

Yes, especially this week am I not taking any chances.

Elsewhere, can you blame And The Valley Shook's skepticism at this point? I say no.

Swing is the total change in each ballot from last week to this week (obviously voters who didn't submit a ballot last week are not included). A high number means you are easily distracted by shiny things. A low number means that you're damn sure you're right no matter what reality says.

Mr. Manic-Depressive

# Blog Team   Swing
1 Tomahawk Nation Florida State 108
2 Big Red Network Nebraska 106
3 CollegeGameBalls Virginia Tech 96
4 BC Interruption Boston College 88
5 Football Outsiders Michigan 88

A mostly boring week leads to lower winning margins in this category.

Tomahawk Nation pulls off the impressive feat of retaining Mr. Bold and winning Mr. Manic Depressive in the same week. Usually it's hard for an outlying ballot to change a lot without getting significantly closer to the norm. A large portion of the winning margin here is the disappearance of South Carolina, previously #14, for obvious reasons; that weird vote gave TN the edge.

Mr. Stubborn

# Blog Team   Swing
1 Bama Sports Report Alabama 26
2 Troy Nunes Is An Absolute Magician Syracuse 30
3 The Mountain West Conference Connection TCU 32
4 SoCal Sports Hub Southern Cal 32
5 The Nittany Line Penn State 34

The Bama Sports Report is your Mr. Stubborn, and this may in fact be one of the stubbornest ballots of all time: no one above #18 moves. It's safe to say last weekend was something of a dud.

Category: NCAAF
Tags: blogpoll, florida
 
 
 
 
 
The views expressed in this blog are solely those of the author and do not reflect the views of CBS Sports or CBSSports.com