Tag:texas tech
Posted on: November 12, 2008 12:53 pm
 

Blogpoll Week 11: Guns Up!


Rank Team PPB Delta
1 Texas Tech (52) 24.7 1
2 Alabama (20) 24.1 1
3 Texas 22.4 2
4 Florida (1) 22.3 --
5 Oklahoma 21.2 1
6 Southern Cal 20.2 1
7 Penn State 18.0 4
8 Utah 17.8 1
9 Boise State 16.1 1
10 Oklahoma State 15.3 2
11 Ohio State 15.0 1
12 Missouri 13.8 2
13 Georgia 13.4 --
14 Ball State 10.4 1
15 North Carolina 10.2 3
16 Michigan State 9.9 1
17 TCU 8.9 6
18 Brigham Young 7.7 1
19 Florida State 6.6 5
20 Pittsburgh 5.1 6
21 LSU 5.0 5
22 Cincinnati 4.1 4
23 Oregon State 2.9 3
24 South Carolina 2.4 2
25 Tulsa 1.5 1

Also Receiving Votes: Virginia Tech(1.3), California(1.2), Air Force(0.7), Oregon(0.6), Miami (Florida)(0.6), Georgia Tech(0.5), Wake Forest(0.5), Boston College(0.2), Western Michigan(0.2), Central Michigan(0.1), Iowa(0.1), Maryland(0.1), West Virginia(0.1), Arizona(0.1), Mississippi(0.1),

Total Ballots: 73

Votes by blog here, votes by team here.

Guns up! Seven straight touchdowns against a top-ten opponent adds up to one nuclear carpet-bombing and one new #1 in the BlogPoll: Texas freakin' Tech, and by a resounding margin of  52-20, with one weirdo going for Florida. This is the latest week in poll history that bloggers have settled on a #1 different than the AP and Coaches polls.

Elsewhere: Oklahoma State is treated with kid gloves, LSU somehow holds on to a spot, Oregon State completes a remarkable turnaround from their horrible start to return to the poll, and all the mid-majors remain way too high.

Wack Ballot Watchdog

It's safe to say this is the Mountain West's most impressive run in the polls during its brief existence, but Rocky Top Talk says someone's getting overlooked:

Air Force. Same losing percentage as Ohio State, Georgia, Missouri, Oklahoma State. (Ditto Western Michigan, by the way.) The Falcons are 26th in the nation in pass efficiency defense, 14th in pass efficiency offense, and 17th in opponents' points per game. They haven't really played anybody noteworthy, but don't be shocked if they give BYU and/or TCU an unexpectedly good game.

I still think RTT's placement of the Zoomies (18th) is extremely goofy for an 8-2 Mountain West team that had under 200 yards of offense against Utah. Also they lost to Navy, though I'm not sure how: Air Force outgained them by over 150 yards.

We have some dissenting voices on our newly anointed #1 Texas Tech. Third Saturday In Blogtober, a joint Alabama-Tennessee effort (yeah, it's kind of weird) has their six guys vote and compiles an average every week; this week TT and Alabama tied at the top, but one of the Texas Tech guys now wishes he could take that vote back:

For all the talk about how Texas Tech’s wins are better, is a win over Texas at home  on a last second play that much better than a win over LSU in Baton Rouge in OT?  Is beating Oklahoma State handily on your own turf that much more impressive than beating Georgia handily on theirs?  The Raiders have only beaten two other teams that will get a bowl bid (Nebraska and Kansas) just as the Tide has, though Clemson could make it a third team.

Attempted answers to TSIB's questions:

  • Texas beat Oklahoma and is a top-five team; LSU has gotten nuked by every competent team they've played (except Alabama) and IMO probably shouldn't even be ranked at this point, so yes, definitely.
  • Oklahoma State and Georgia are close to the same team, I guess, so that's a push.

So you're really weighing the superiority of Texas Tech's best win against the added depth on Alabama's schedule, and that's close but it's not unreasonable to suggest the Red Raiders come out on top there.

Now on to the extracurriculars. First up are the teams which spur the most and least disagreement between voters as measured by standard deviation. Note that the standard deviation charts halt at #25 when looking for the lowest, otherwise teams that everyone agreed were terrible (say, Eastern Michigan) would all be at the top.

Most Disagreement

# Team StdDev
1 Brigham Young 4.1
2 Ball State 3.9
3 LSU 3.3
4 Florida State 2.9
5 Oregon State 2.9

BYU and Ball State have a lock at the top of this category for obvious reasons: one 59-0 waxing of a poor UCLA team and Ball State's general existence as a member of the MAC.

Ballot Math

First up are "Mr. Bold" and "Mr. Numb Existence." The former goes to the voter with the ballot most divergent from the poll at large. The number you see is the average difference between a person's opinion of a team and the poll's opinion.

Mr. Bold

# Blog Team   Avg Error
1 Tomahawk Nation Florida State 3.46
2 Eagle in Atlanta Boston College 2.99
3 mgoblog Michigan 2.83
4 CollegeGameBalls Virginia Tech 2.62
5 The Rakes of Mallow Notre Dame 2.52

Thanks, Tomahawk Nation, for taking the mantle of boldness from yours truly's shoulders. For the record, I remain near the top of this category because I have every mid-major team well below its poll ranking.

Tomahawk Nation's ballot, on the other hand, is weird for a number of reasons: it has an ACC team—North Carolina—#8, South Carolina #14, and various other perturbations. But the main reason is a sudden, exaggerated version of the mid-major hate that won me this thing last week: Utah, Boise State, and TCU, 10-12 last week, all plummet right out of the ballot this week.

What's going on?

After finally getting a chance to watch these guys, I realized that they are not at the level of ranked teams from major conferences.  Additionally, their schedule strengths were incredibly inflated because they had all played each other, who were also ranked highly.  These teams are not talented.  They are able to focus on their 1 game of the year against a big-6 conference team for several weeks.  The BCS team views them as a schedule break.  Letdown city.  I am really against power-polling, but none of these teams deserve to play in a BCS game and I am no longer rewarding teams in any way for simply not losing to the likes of Eastern Illinois and Nevada.

I'm obviously sympathetic to this argument, but even I think maybe the mid-majors are worthy of ranking in the teens.

Mr. Numb Existence

# Blog Team   Avg Error
1 Around the Oval Ohio State 0.87
2 Black Shoe Diaries Penn State 0.92
3 The Red Zone Report Mississippi State 0.94
4 Eleven Warriors Ohio State 0.96
5 California Golden Blogs California 1.00

Next we have the Coulter/Kos Award and the Straight Bangin' Award, which are again different sides of the same coin. The CKA and SBA go to the blogs with the highest and lowest bias rating, respectively. Bias rating is calculated by subtracting the blogger's vote for his own team from the poll-wide average. A high number indicates you are shameless homer. A low number indicates that you suffer from an abusive relationship with your football team.

The Coulter/Kos Award

# Blog Team   Bias
1 TheES Michigan State 6.11
2 ACC Football Report Florida State 4.36
3 Tar Heel Mania North Carolina 3.82
4 Block U Utah 3.23
5 Mizzourah Missouri 3.21

The CK Award is once again the property of that guy from Michigan State, and what a dastardly time to win it: the Spartans have a bye this week before facing off with Penn State in The Only Time The Land Grant Trophy Has Ever Been Relevant Bowl. The dire effect of the award will have to wait.

An update on our ongoing CK Award watch: last week's winner is this weeks #2, so Florida State was under the gun. The Seminoles beat coachless, aimless Clemson by two touchdowns, which is a FAIL in our book, bringing the CK Award to 3-7 against the spread.

The Straight Bangin' Award

# Blog Team   Bias
1 Pitt Blather Pittsburgh -5.12
2 Team Speed Kills South Carolina -2.41
3 Buckeye Commentary Ohio State -1.00
4 50-Yard Lion Penn State -0.97
5 Tomahawk Nation Florida State -0.64

Straight Bangin’ Award is the property of skeptical Pitt blog Pitt Blather, which completely omitted the home team from its ballot for totally solid reasons:

You bet I’m not ranking Pitt. They haven’t shown they can handle the success of being ranked in the BlogPoll. Granted there is no rational reason not to rank them. Just irrational fear on my part.

That's right. Don't screw with the BlogPoll, because it has dire powers! That it refuses to use against Michigan State! Dagnabit!

Swing is the total change in each ballot from last week to this week (obviously voters who didn't submit a ballot last week are not included). A high number means you are easily distracted by shiny things. A low number means that you're damn sure you're right no matter what reality says.

Mr. Manic-Depressive

# Blog Team   Swing
1 Every Day Should Be Saturday Florida 138
2 Eagle in Atlanta Boston College 120
3 Big Red Network Nebraska 120
4 Tomahawk Nation Florida State 118
5 Fulmer's Belly Tennessee 112

Megablog Every Day Should Be Saturday picks up Mr. Manic Depressive for sudden enthusiasm about Pitt (up 11), UNC (up 10), FSU (up 9), and BYU (up 8), plus the hideous mistake of trusting Bill Stewart: West Virginia was #12 last week and is down to #23 this week.

Mr. Stubborn

# Blog Team   Swing
1 Falcon Nation Bowling Green 56
2 Orange::44 Syracuse 58
3 From Old Virginia Virginia 58
4 Braves and Birds Georgia 60
5 Bama Sports Report Alabama 60

Bowling Green blog Falcon Nation is Mr. Stubborn this week, edging out a number of other similarly unmoved blogs. There's actually plenty of movement in the ballot in question, with all but five teams shifting somewhere. It's just that none of them go very far. The narrow winning margin is probably due to TCU's small two spot slide.

Category: NCAAF
 
 
 
 
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